DISCUSSION The World at Global Population Peak

by Yolanda Villafuerte _______30th October 2012

In September 2012, Wikistrat ran a two-week simulation exploring the state of the world at the anticipated point of peak global population. This is estimated by the United Nations to be around 10.1 billion which will be reached in 2050-2100.

Over 75 analysts took part in this simulation and constructed around 24 scenarios. Four ‘Base Cases’ were constructed from these scenarios and created along two fundamental questions:

  1. Does the world handle the peaking of the population or does this tipping point overwhelm existing markets, polities, societies and international organisations?
  2. Does the resulting world focus more on managing resources or people?

These four cases are separated according to whether the focus is on people or resources, and whether the population peak proves overwhelming or is managed. To see this model, and read the full executive summary of the report, please visit the Wikistrat website.

Wikistrat’s latest simulation ‘Who Smuggles What in 2050?’, which runs from 22 October to 1 November explores what the demand for materials 40 years from now will be. It predicts scenarios like the trafficking of biological weapons such as smallpox seed strains and anticipates what the impact on regions, actors and underlying economics will be on the illegal status of some materials.  Please follow their blog for updates. http://www.wikistrat.com/geopolitical-analysis/simulation-insights-who-smuggles-what-in-2050/

About Wikistrat:

Wikistrat is the world’s first Massively Multiplayer Online Consultancy (MMOC). It leverages a global network of subject-matter experts via a patent pending crowdsourcing methodology. The ideas and insights from this unique consulting service are available on a real-time interactive platform.

On its twitter feed, Wikistrat describes itself as a ‘Next-Generation Geopolitical strategy and forecasting’.